This is a post-CNY update with a look at CME odds of a March rate hike (83%). Additionally I take a closer look at JP225 and SG30. JP225 is clearly the weaker leg in the correction and their relative performance suggests JP225 has more to lose. For SG30, recall that 399 is a strong level to test.
5 features in this chart define SiMSCI trend and risk-reward proposition for traders: 1) rising equidistant channel since late-2016 2) steep trend line from September 2017 3) February high 4) major 2015-top at 399 and lastly 5) rising month-month price action.
Both EURAUD and EURNZD have been rangebound since 6 weeks. Their daily and monthly charts paint a compelling picture. Hopefully a driver will come along soon – if the final direction is down, there appears to be room for a big move.
Out of 7 USDJPY forecasts compiled in the beginning of the year, 6 appear to be wrong. It is 11 months too early to tell but does not bode well. Price takes the path of least resistance – JPY charts suggest this ‘least resistance’ path is down.
Spot 3 out of 5 common elements of a high probability reversal setup in AUDJPY. Understand why they offer a compelling trade action when all five appear and what to expect of the last two.
ECB Monetary Policy Meeting this Thursday could provide the driver to push EURGBP into a move with conviction. If not, then how the pair closes by end of January should provide a clue for February. This zone is a significant support coming to five months.
There is certainly a technical resistance there. We need just a price-turning event. With BOJ monetary policy announced tomorrow and ECB this Thursday, there are two chances for a ‘mover and shaker’ to come out with a price turning story.