A look at year to date relative performance of major forex pairs and stock indices Despite high positive correlation, subsequent action following early February’s correction, separate themes are showing up as winners and losers emerge.
Nuts and bolts analyses don’t look Wow! but traders should not cast them aside casually. In my opinion, there is no sure-win strategy: the winner is the one who is most willing to put in effort to piece nuts and bolts analyses into a complete accurate picture of the market.
This is a post-CNY update with a look at CME odds of a March rate hike (83%). Additionally I take a closer look at JP225 and SG30. JP225 is clearly the weaker leg in the correction and their relative performance suggests JP225 has more to lose. For SG30, recall that 399 is a strong level to test.
Energy stocks had prospects to become star performers in 2018 based on their January performance as well as performance of WTI. With the US stock correction however a 5-day heatmap reveals Energy (XLE) to be the worst performing sector. Also WTI technicals, performance of SGX-listed Keppel, Sembcorp.
It really shouldn’t matter to a speculator what caused this round of correction/crash. It could be a spike in the VIX complex, rising bond yields or runaway algorithm-trading. If there is a crash somewhere, it would be followed by margin calls which will trigger sell orders in other assets to raise cash.