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Tag Archives: market sentiment-psychology

CME Fedwatch Tool rate hike odds captured on 01 February 2018

80% probability of Fed rate hike in March 2018

Day after January FOMC (last night), probability of a hike in March is 80.3%. If there is a rate hike in March, the next one will likely happen in June with 58.9% probability. A third hike in 2018 is uncertain; probability of cumulative 75 basis point hike for the whole year is less than 50% at this point.

CME FedWatch Tool screenshot taken on 04 January 2018

Hawks demand more!

Odds of a 25 basis point rate hike in March 2018 by the Federal Reserve increased dramatically since minutes of the December ’17 FOMC meeting was released last night.