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Tag Archives: FOMC rate hike

CME Fedwatch Tool screencap 16 January 2019

Mood shift part 2

We are looking at increase in expectation of Fed rate hikes this year 2019 versus just last week based on CME Fedwatch Tool. Just last week market was looking at virtually no hike and odds of a rate cut but now we are back in 2-hikes territory.

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Fedwatch Tool screencap on 13 June 2018

Rate hike odds 15 hours before FOMC June ’18 meeting

Based on CME Fedwatch Tool, market attaches a 96.3% of a 25 point rate hike at the coming June 2018 meeting. Another 25-point hike is highly expected in September but a total of 4 hikes or 100 points by end of year cannot be ruled out

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US10Y monthly chart from 2017 - present

At first rates rise very slowly then suddenly very fast

10-year US Treasury Bonds are now trading at 2.919 % yield. Analysts warn that 3% will trigger a stock market correction. Interest rates could rise slowly at first, then suddenly very fast. Once rates rise, gold will fall, bonds will fall, stocks will fall, property will fall.

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