Based on CME Fedwatch Tool, market attaches a 96.3% of a 25 point rate hike at the coming June 2018 meeting. Another 25-point hike is highly expected in September but a total of 4 hikes or 100 points by end of year cannot be ruled out
Exercise caution with Straits Times Index and Hang Seng Index which are both painting potential reversal chart patterns on weekly time frame.
4-charts. Dot Plot shows FOMC meeting participants’ assessment of monetary policy. Rate hike odds implied from Fed Fund Futures trading.
Screencaps of rate hike probabilities as well as FOMC Dot Plot taken off CME FedWatch Tool. In addition, a list of 3 meeting outcomes that could qualify as a shock to the market i.e. high impact news.
10-year US Treasury Bonds are now trading at 2.919 % yield. Analysts warn that 3% will trigger a stock market correction. Interest rates could rise slowly at first, then suddenly very fast. Once rates rise, gold will fall, bonds will fall, stocks will fall, property will fall.
EEM ETF has spent the last 3 months above a prominent 6-year resistance. This could be a sustainable development. At face value, I feel it is more attractive than stocks in countries that are only driven by financial expansion.
Odds of a 25 basis point rate hike in March 2018 by the Federal Reserve increased dramatically since minutes of the December ’17 FOMC meeting was released last night.