4-charts. Dot Plot shows FOMC meeting participants’ assessment of monetary policy. Rate hike odds implied from Fed Fund Futures trading.
Screencaps of rate hike probabilities as well as FOMC Dot Plot taken off CME FedWatch Tool. In addition, a list of 3 meeting outcomes that could qualify as a shock to the market i.e. high impact news.
10-year US Treasury Bonds are now trading at 2.919 % yield. Analysts warn that 3% will trigger a stock market correction. Interest rates could rise slowly at first, then suddenly very fast. Once rates rise, gold will fall, bonds will fall, stocks will fall, property will fall.
EEM ETF has spent the last 3 months above a prominent 6-year resistance. This could be a sustainable development. At face value, I feel it is more attractive than stocks in countries that are only driven by financial expansion.
Odds of a 25 basis point rate hike in March 2018 by the Federal Reserve increased dramatically since minutes of the December ’17 FOMC meeting was released last night.
CME FedWatch Tool now indicates over 10% increase in probability for a March or May 2018 rate hike compared to odds captured a day after the last FOMC meeting.
Based on CME FedWatch tool indicated probabilities captured the day after the last FOMC meeting in 2017, rate hike expectations for 2018 just turned for the worse.