Odds of a 25 basis point rate hike in March 2018 by the Federal Reserve increased dramatically since minutes of the December ’17 FOMC meeting was released last night.
CME FedWatch Tool now indicates over 10% increase in probability for a March or May 2018 rate hike compared to odds captured a day after the last FOMC meeting.
Based on CME FedWatch tool indicated probabilities captured the day after the last FOMC meeting in 2017, rate hike expectations for 2018 just turned for the worse.
With 7 more days to go to the last FOMC meeting of 2017, most analysts see a rate hike as a certainty. Based on odds however, there are 9 ways to describe rate hikes in 2018 and not all are rosy.
Quantitative easing is over. Quantitative tightening starts in October. These 4 charts could be signalling that Retail is the first segment to correct.
EURUSD, AUDUSD and NZDUSD print new 52-week highs, USDCAD new 52-week low to mark their strengthening against USD; terminates previous year-year trend.
Some observations for Dollar Index chart in the weekly time frame. It is my personal opinion that prospects for additional rate hikes for 2017 are not high based on the way DXY is declining below previous rate hike levels.