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Forex winners and losers against USD since 15 August 2018

15 August 2018 could be turning point for the USD. Quick look at forex majors reveal a sudden spike or climax on this day followed by sharp u-turn the following.

This chart below shows an overlay of forex majors from 15 August 2018. If 15 August was the turning point, what we see here could be the new trend.

Observations

  1. EUR is strongest against USD.
  2. JPY is weakest against USD.
  3. From strong to weak: USD, EUR, NZD, CHF, CNH, GBP, AUD, SGD, CAD and JPY.
  4. There does not appear to be a separate theme. All pairs are moving in tandem according to risk-on, risk-off.
Forex majors overlaid from 15 August 2018

Forex majors overlaid from 15 August 2018

Ideas for traders

  1. If this new trend stays, the best trade is to long EURUSD followed by long NZDUSD, short USDCHF.
  2. Ex-USD, the best performing crosses are long EURJPY, long EURCAD or long NZDJPY.
  3. If market swings back to bullish-USD, USDJPY could be a potential long trade.
  4. For those who want to skip the USD, best crosses to look at are combinations of those currencies furthest from each other.

How to do an overlay here to pick winners and losers.

 

 

 

3Shares

Director, TerraSeeds Market Technician Pte Ltd. Trader, investor. @sohtionghum was picked ‘Top 70 Forex Twitter in 2015’. Operates multiple strategies.

“Dear reader, I do not have a financial license to give advice. I do not know you the reader. Your financial objective and risk tolerance may be different from mine. I am not responsible for any consequence of your action.

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