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Rate hike odds 15 hours before FOMC June ’18 meeting

15 hours to go until June 2018 FOMC meeting, this is what odds look like for a rate hike based on CME Fedwatch Tool.

Observations:

  1. Odds for a 25 point hike is now 96.3%. Recall that 36 hours after the March meeting, probability of a 25 point hike was 70.3%.
  2. There is a better than 50% probability for two 25-point hikes this year but another two more hikes for a cumulative total of 100 points by December cannot be ruled out.
  3. Next hike will come in September.

If the market attaches such a high probability for a 25-point hike to be announced tonight, then surprise will come from a 50-point hike or none.

Fedwatch Tool screencap on 13 June 2018

Fedwatch Tool screencap on 13 June 2018 | Source: CME

Director, TerraSeeds Market Technician Pte Ltd. Trader, investor. @sohtionghum was picked ‘Top 70 Forex Twitter in 2015’.

“Dear reader, I do not have a financial license to give advice. I do not know you the reader. Your financial objective and risk tolerance may be different from mine. I am not responsible for any consequence of your action.

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