Thoughts of the day on NZDJPY, XAUUSD and SiMSCI
NZDJPY perched on support/cliff
This is NZDJPY monthly chart. Those two dotted lines are drawn from previous end-of-month closing price. Those two lines form a support zone confirmed by price reaction from the last two candles (not including the current one). The whole setup is very clear on a line chart.
At the moment, we can see that NZDJPY looks supported but really price could rebound from here or break down entirely. I don’t like the last two Dojis – they show that support is unconvincing. Anyway the whole lot is sticky near to the bottom so I am looking for a ‘cliff’ setup. Also note that JPY has a habit of strengthening whenever stock indices fall so this NZDJPY chart and other JPY pairs are now looking inauspicious to stock market participants.
SG30 failed break? Same old same old
SG30 is the CFD contract for SiMSCI (Singapore Index Futures). It is showing a highly recurring pattern that resembles a triple top with the last peak as a potential failed break. Those interested can look up Wyckoff Analysis. If this is true, then it is possible that SiMSCI has topped 2 days ago on Wednesday 02 May 2018. Look up my post on STI and HSI yesterday but between STI and SiMSCI, SiMSCI is looking really obvious.
Back to this false break sign, look out also my post calling the top for Nasdaq100. Same old, same old.
XAUUSD looking miserable
I am a gold bull so this gold setup makes me sad too. But the truth is that XAUUSD is inversely correlated to USD so now that USD is strengthening, it makes sense XAUUSD is retreating.
Truth is XAUUSD has this really hard-to-beat resistance. Chart below is a 3M chart (each candle = 3 months). Not including the current candle, XAUUSD has never closed above 1327.20 since the last 19 quarters going to 20. Make that 57 months or nearly 5 years. So unless 1327 is overcome soon, looks like this quarter could be a disappointment to gold bulls.
This chart above shows XAUUSD weekly chart in line format. Note that 1327 was penetrated and failed four times already this year. Now that resistance is so clear, it could be bears turn to take XAUUSD down to find out where support is. Gains made over the last two to three days might just be a pullback.
Note: We can overlook one or two signals but we should not overlook when they are all sending the same signal. All these setups can now be linked to a strengthening USD and rising interest rates.
Director, TerraSeeds Market Technician Pte Ltd. Trader, investor. @sohtionghum was picked ‘Top 70 Forex Twitter in 2015’.
“Dear reader, I do not have a financial license to give advice. I do not know you the reader. Your financial objective and risk tolerance may be different from mine. I am not responsible for any consequence of your action.