80% probability of Fed rate hike in March 2018
Implied probabilities of Fed rate hikes for 2018 according to the CME Fedwatch Tool. Day after January FOMC (last night), probability of a hike in March is 80.3%.
Based on this table:
- Odds of a 25 basis point hike during March FOMC meeting is 80.3%.
- A rate cut cannot be ruled out at any time.
- If there is a rate hike in March, the next one will likely happen in June with 58.9% probability.
- A third hike in 2018 is uncertain; probability of cumulative 75 basis point hike for the whole year is less than 50% at this point.
This screengrab was captured on 14 December 2017, day after December FOMC. Odds of a March hike at that time was just over 45%. This was what I wrote at that time.