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Monthly Archives: February 2018

DXY 3M chart from 1999 - present

I-Ching: Yin and Yang and the two phases of the market

Trading can make one become philosophical (or it could be an outcome of watching too much Youtube in between). I share with you the concept of change based on the I-Ching and a quote from Bruce Lee that could shape the way you approach your

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SG30 weekly chart Sep 2014 - present

In stock market driven by sentiment, fundamentals matter more than ever

Price performance based on this chart of SiMSCI shows that the last four weeks, only market sentiment and chart level matters. Did any fundamentals change in 4 weeks? Fear driven correction, then V-shaped rebound absent any meaningful narrative. Time more than even to pay attention to fundamentals.

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US10Y monthly chart from 2017 - present

At first rates rise very slowly then suddenly very fast

10-year US Treasury Bonds are now trading at 2.919 % yield. Analysts warn that 3% will trigger a stock market correction. Interest rates could rise slowly at first, then suddenly very fast. Once rates rise, gold will fall, bonds will fall, stocks will fall, property will fall.

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JP225 - SG30 - AUDJPY overlay captured on 20 Feb 2018

29 days 11 hrs 55 min to a 83% probability Fed hike; post-CNY update

This is a post-CNY update with a look at CME odds of a March rate hike (83%). Additionally I take a closer look at JP225 and SG30. JP225 is clearly the weaker leg in the correction and their relative performance suggests JP225 has more to lose. For SG30, recall that 399 is a strong level to test.

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5-day US S&P500 sector heatmap captured from Sectorspdr.com

How’s Energy (WTI, U96, BN4) doing in this ‘correction’?

Energy stocks had prospects to become star performers in 2018 based on their January performance as well as performance of WTI. With the US stock correction however a 5-day heatmap reveals Energy (XLE) to be the worst performing sector. Also WTI technicals, performance of SGX-listed Keppel, Sembcorp.

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SPX shows reaction to 10% correction level

US stock indices struggling to stay above this level

Day to day price action suggests that US stock indices are struggling to hold on to a 10% level off 52-week high. This level is associated with ‘correction’. At 20%, it’s bear market. In absolute terms, this correction is horrid. It dwarfs ‘Black Monday’ on August 24, 2015. Delusion or meaningful?

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