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6 out of 7 forecasts to get USDJPY wrong?

Let’s visit this post ‘Exchange rate forecasts for 2018 [compilation]‘ published on 08 January 2018.

USDJPY forecast

  1. USDJPY to 121 in Q4 2018; lowest 116 in Q1 [DBS]
  2. USDJPY to hit 122 by end-2018 [UBS]
  3. USDJPY to 111.66 in Dec 2018; lowest 110.93 in April [The Economy Forecast Agency]
  4. USDJPY to drop to 105 by end-Q4 2018 [Barclays]
  5. USDJPY to hit 111 in 6-12 months [Citibank]
  6. USDJPY to hit 115 by Q4 2018 [Scotiabank]
  7. USDJPY to hit 114 by Dec 2018 [Credit Agricole]

It is 11 months too early to tell but at this point, 6 out of 7 forecasts for USDJPY appear to be totally wrong. In addition, long term charts below suggests that in order for USDJPY to go higher (so that these 6 forecasts can be correct), the pair has to overcome some pretty big levels.

At this point of writing, USDJPY is trading 108.66. According to IDC data on Tradingview.com, USDJPY traded between 112.88 to 113.38 on 08 January. Current momentum points USDJPY lower instead of higher.

A separate story on AUDJPY was posted here.

 

USDJPY 3M chart 1987 - present

USDJPY 3M chart 1987 – present

EURJPY monthly chart 1995 - present

EURJPY monthly chart 1995 – present

CADJPY monthly chart 1995 - present

CADJPY monthly chart 1995 – present

AUDJPY monthly chart 1995 - present

AUDJPY monthly chart 1995 – present

SGDJPY monthly chart 1995 - present

SGDJPY monthly chart 1995 – present

This is rest of Barclay’s forex forecast for 2018.

Barclay's forex forecast for 2018

Barclay’s forex forecast for 2018 | Source: PoundSterlingLive.com

Director, TerraSeeds Market Technician Pte Ltd. Trader, investor. @sohtionghum was picked ‘Top 70 Forex Twitter in 2015’.

“Dear reader, I do not have a financial license to give advice. I do not know you the reader. Your financial objective and risk tolerance may be different from mine. I am not responsible for any consequence of your action.

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