SiMSCI follows a 30-month cycle between late 2006 to present according to this chart. If true, local stock market is reaching a top soon followed by a bottom by end of 2018.
Visually, this 30-month cycle (top to top or bottom to bottom, see green semi-circle) appears to be pretty good fit with the tops and bottoms of SiMSCI (Singapore Index Futures). ‘Fitness’ appears to start from 2006 – 2007. If this cycle is a good indication, then:
- We are coming pretty near to a top now since the index is in the middle coinciding with previous top printed early 2015.
- If there is a top, I expect to find it at or near to 392-400 region since there is conveniently a 6-year high or resistance there.
- Such a top fitting a 30-month cycle could be followed by a bottom late 2018 or early 2019.
- Minor tops to bottoms could be 9 months apart.
Quarterly chart of SiMSCI from 2004 to present
- Cycles are observable phenomenon but there is no exact science so even if one can find an occasional fit, it might not have consistent predictive value.
- This cycle here seems like a good fit based on visual inspection but has not been tested.
- In any case, a top can only be confirmed by price action so timing the market with cycles such as this are nice-t0-know only.
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Soh Tiong Hum is Director of TerraSeeds Market Technician Pte Ltd. TerraSeeds is a trading educator in Singapore since 2005.
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"I do not have a financial advisor's license. I am not qualified by any regulator to give financial advice. I do not know you the reader. Your investment means and motive may be different from me. My posts here are based on observations and meant for education. I am not responsible for for any consequence from your actions."