This 30-month cycle looks pretty amazing fit for SiMSCI

SiMSCI follows a 30-month cycle between late 2006 to present according to this chart. If true, local stock market is reaching a top soon followed by a bottom by end of 2018.

Visually, this 30-month cycle (top to top or bottom to bottom, see green semi-circle) appears to be pretty good fit with the tops and bottoms of SiMSCI (Singapore Index Futures). ‘Fitness’ appears to start from 2006 – 2007. If this cycle is a good indication, then:

  • We are coming pretty near to a top now since the index is in the middle coinciding with previous top printed early 2015.
  • If there is a top, I expect to find it at or near to 392-400 region since there is conveniently a 6-year high or resistance there.
  • Such a top fitting a 30-month cycle could be followed by a bottom late 2018 or early 2019.
  • Minor tops to bottoms could be 9 months apart.
Quarterly chart of SiMSCI from 2004 to present

Quarterly chart of SiMSCI from 2004 to present

Qualifier:

  1. Cycles are observable phenomenon but there is no exact science so even if one can find an occasional fit, it might not have consistent predictive value.
  2. This cycle here seems like a good fit based on visual inspection but has not been tested.
  3. In any case, a top can only be confirmed by price action so timing the market with cycles such as this are nice-t0-know only.
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Soh Tiong Hum is Director of TerraSeeds Market Technician Pte Ltd. TerraSeeds is a trading educator in Singapore since 2005.   Soh's Twitter account @sohtionghum was ranked #23 out of The Top 70 Twitter Accounts To Follow In 2015 by MahiFX.   Disclaimer notice: "I do not have a financial advisor's license. I am not qualified by any regulator to give financial advice. I do not know you the reader. Your investment means and motive may be different from me. My posts here are based on observations and meant for education. I am not responsible for for any consequence from your actions."
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