AUD and NZD pairs show recurring, high probability levels on weekly charts, and have a lot of significance because of duration and number of hits.
NZDUSD, NZDJPY and NZDCHF
- Last quarter break all the way to high of 0.7558 turned out to be a false/unsustainable break.
- Therefore, effective resistance is still at 73 region which was around since Q3 2016.
- Next stop previous support at mid-68 if current momentum can follow through.
- This should be a big level since it goes back to late-2015.
- If a pullback comes up, mid-70 might be a resistance based on previous price action.
NZDUSD weekly line chart, mid 2015 – present
- Below NZDJPY and NZDCHY weekly line charts over same duration.
NZDJPY weekly line chart from mid-2015 to present
NZDCHF weekly line chart from mid-2015 to present
AUDUSD, AUDJPY and AUDCHF
- At a glance, AUDUSD instantly comes across as much stronger than NZDUSD.
- Q3 penetration above previous resistance was much higher.
- Price is still above that resistance.
- At moment the pair is still above Q3 low.
- If there are only two forex pairs in the world, I would go short the NZDUSD and long the AUDUSD (subject to timing and level because both are equally prone to move up and down together between risk-on and risk-off mode).
AUDUSD weekly line chart from mid-2015 to present
- Below, AUDJPY and AUDCHF charts.
AUDJPY weekly line chart mid-2015 to present
AUDCHF weekly line chart mid-2015 to present
Why look at week and line charts for trend lines and horizontal levels and not anywhere else? Because end of day there are big obvious levels that have high probability outcomes. The proposition at these levels are pretty straightforward that does not need overthinking. There is a lot of noise at lower time frames and many often times, we give significance to insignificant levels because of our own imagination. Do we have to trade every time frame, every pair? No need. Just a good bet at the right place.
The following two tabs change content below.
Soh Tiong Hum is Director of TerraSeeds Market Technician Pte Ltd. TerraSeeds is a trading educator in Singapore since 2005.
Soh's Twitter account @sohtionghum
was ranked #23 out of The Top 70 Twitter Accounts To Follow In 2015
"I do not have a financial advisor's license. I am not qualified by any regulator to give financial advice. I do not know you the reader. Your investment means and motive may be different from me. My posts here are based on observations and meant for education. I am not responsible for for any consequence from your actions."