Assorted charts including WTI, XAUUSD
WTI 12M and weekly charts
These are 12M (yearly) line and candlestick charts of WTI from 1980s to present. There is a lot of noise at the top and bottom but based on the line chart, WTI is probably trapped in a multi-year range between $40-43 support below and $96-100 resistance at the top.
Note the level $42.70 which is end-of-2008 close.
This chart below is WTI is weekly time frame from Q4 2015 to present. Note the price reaction to $42.70 which was the end-of-year close in 2008. In addition, note resistance this year comes from previous 52-week high (2016)
In between, the 52-week high and 2008 low, WTI is enclosed in a narrow range. There is probably not much room until price breaks out higher or lower. Q-q trend suggests that WTI is weakening.
XAUUSD weekly line chart
- Big blue boxes for up years, big pink boxes for down years.
- Smaller green boxes for up quarters, smaller pink boxes for down quarters.
- Up years with higher highs and higher lows from 2007 to 2011 – uptrend.
- Inside year in 2012 – could be continuation, could be reversal.
- Big bearish expansion in 2013 with lower low. 2013 terminates previous year-year uptrend.
- 2014 – 2015 is a continuation, 2013-2015 are down trending years with lower highs and lower lows.
- 2016 with new 52-week high terminates down trend from 2013 – 2015. This is a trend change signal. I reported this on 20 July 2016 in ‘This chart screams new trend for XAUUSD‘.
- This quarter XAUUSD beat Q1 and Q2. With a positive and higher close for Q3 at the end of this month, there is a good chance to see a new high of year or at least another try at 52-week high ($1375) in Q4.
- It is fair to expect 2018 to be better.
GBPNZD weekly chart from June 2015 to present
If a new 52-week high could be a signal for y-y trend change, a new quarterly high could be a trend change q-q. With this expectation in mind, GBPNZD could be due for further gains now that 1) a resistance was broken and 2) there was also a double bottom chart pattern.
Note the spike in the centre-bottom of this chart. There was a GBP flash crash on 07 October last year that has not been explained till date. This spike appears on some charts but not others – this is a function of data source. I prefer to give the spike a pass when I draw trend lines, levels etc.
EURUSD 12M chart
I will talk about this chart and many others including USDJPY and AUDUSD at my seminar tomorrow.
Note: I am an invited speaker. I do not represent IG. My views are my own.