0% chance of rate hike in 3 days according to CME tool

Just came across ‘CME FedWatch Tool’ here. According to the user guide,

The CME FedWatch Tool analyzes the probability of FOMC rate moves for upcoming meetings. Using 30-Day Fed Fund futures pricing data, which have long been relied upon to express the market’s views on the likelihood of changes in U.S. monetary policy, the tool visualizes both current and historical probabilities of various FOMC rate change outcomes for a given meeting date. The tool also shows the Fed’s “Dot Plot,” which reflects FOMC members’ expectations for the Fed target rate over time.


Looks pretty amazing although I don’t know if I am using it right. Unless I am reading this table below totally wrong, there is zero probability of a rate hike this week but a 1.4% probability of a rate cut. I will be keeping track of this to get a sense of it’s performance. Some historical data is available for download but unfortunately it goes back to May 2017 only.

CME FedWatch tool September 2017 FOMC probabilities

CME FedWatch tool September 2017 FOMC probabilities

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