Straits Times Index constituents April 2017 performance
Monthly and quarterly performance of Strait Times Index STI constituents are important indicators of the heath of the Singapore stock market. The Straits Times Index is made up of 30 highest capitalised stocks listed on the Singapore Exchange. Based on a report from The Straits Times Business on 27 March 2017, “the 30 stocks making up the Straits Times Index (STI) account for about 68.9 per cent of daily trading activity, even though there are about 770 stocks listed on the SGX”. If these 30 stocks rally, the STI rallies. If these 30 stocks correct, the STI corrects.
I started tracking STI quarterly winners and losers back in the middle of 2014. These observations mean something to me:
- End Q1 2015, Straits Times Index closes up 2.43% with 18 stocks up, 12 down.
- End Q2 2015, Straits Times Index goes into red from Q1. 24 stocks decline into loss territory.
- End Q3 2015, Straits Times Index falls 15.87%, 29 out of 30 constituents end the quarter in the red.
- August 24 2015, ‘Black Monday’ in the US, global stocks crash.
How much the STI goes up or down is not the only indicator of a health stock market. Market breadth is equally important. Market breadth describes the number of companies that are advancing versus declining. An advancing index accompanied by strong number of advancers is healthy. An advancing index accompanied by strong number of decliners shows bearish divergence.
I believe that 24 stocks going into the red at the end of Q2 2015 was a red flag. I believe that investors who saw this red flag could be prepared for and could have avoided Black Monday 24 August even though that crash started in the US. Given how connected markets have become and have a super high propensity to move in the same direction, red flag is equally valid signal here and elsewhere.
Straits Times Index constituents end-of-April 2017 more losers than winners
- 19 companies advance, 11 decline.
- Genting Singapore is gain leader up 9.3% for April.
- Golden Agri is loss leader down 6.5%.
- The STI itself ended 0.33 points up or a tiny tiny 0.01%.
Compare this with Q1 performance.
- Q1 2017, STI was up 10.22%.
- 27 stocks advanced, 3 declined.
Comparing end of April performance to end of Q1 performance is not apple to apple comparison but I am looking for trend, not comparison of two snapshots.
The stock market in Q1 in my opinion was very healthy. I hope Q2 will continue this way – Q1 doesn’t raise any flags. Based on end of April performance however, there is a slowdown. If we looked only at index performance, it looks ok. Small rise, no apparent danger, no big deal. If we look at market breadth however, advance-decline is moving to the centre. Nothing alarming but we don’t want May and June numbers to cross the 15:15 mark the wrong way.
Market on other front
- Previously I pointed out that AUDUSD has many elements of a short especially with a potential double top. Neckline was broken last week. This is the third signal. Signals 1 and 2 was covered here. I believe that at moment AUDUSD is doing a pullback to find resistance. We could see a dead cat bounce but a sideway consolidation like a bear flag should be preferred. If AUDUSD ‘unbreaks’ the neckline, be careful of a reversal or steep retracement led by short covering.
- NZDUSD has fallen after a 1-2-3-4 bearish continuation. Perfect signal, perfect outcome.
- EURUSD is still resisted. See my analysis here. Nothing changed.
- Am looking at USDSGD and Natural Gas.