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NZDUSD high probability setup printing continuation pattern

We had a forex gap yesterday but overnight action reveals that this gap doesn’t really have the momentum to change the big picture. I am predicting gaps to close and late-March/early-April direction to continue. NZDUSD is the loss leader for now, printing a high probability setup.


NZDUSD chart patterns, 1-2-3-4 count

This high probability pattern in NZDUSD has several elements in place and is on the same level as my previous discussion on AUDUSD – see here (before) and here (after).

NZDUSD symmetrical triangle on daily chart

NZDUSD symmetrical triangle on daily chart


In my blog post yesterday I wrote that despite a big forex gap action, nothing has changed and indeed 24 hours later, everything still looks the same. (OK that’s not entirely true. Indices moved. Indices always move UP. They are so bullish I think if nuclear war broke up, investors would still be buying the dip on prediction that central bankers launch QE∞. In a room full of forex traders and stock investors I know who is in touch with reality and who is not.)

NZD is the loss leader here and if it’s high probability setup is correct, NZDUSD is setting up for the next shoe to drop.

NZD loss leader in last 24 hours

NZD loss leader in last 24 hours | Screencap from


Price action that I need to qualify:

  1. Triangle pattern does not change.
  2. Pair to do a bearish expansion on the week.
  3. Price goes for 1-3 TLB and not extend into 5-6-7-8 kind of complex price action.
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