What if 2016 was just a respite? Chart of Copper, AUDUSD

Question: Is this the top for Copper and AUDUSD?

Fact #1 – Year to year price action for Copper and AUDUSD shows both remain in down trend mode, printing lower highs and lower lows since 2013.

Unless this lower high and lower low sequence is terminated, the technical picture and therefore money at stake shows that last year’s action is a retracement or sideway movement only.

And after Q1 2017, we know the results of Copper and AUDUSD’s run in with their 52-week high. Never mind what policy makers and newspaper headlines say, these are facts on the chart.

  • Both have been trending lower year on year since 2013.
  • Compared to 2016 levels, last year was merely a retracement, or sideway consolidation.
  • Maybe there is a reversal pattern, maybe not but Copper ran into it’s 52-week high in Q1 and the outcome show it is resisted.
  • As for AUDUSD, there is this 15 month level that the pair absolutely is not able to overcome.
  • Since some market participants believe that these two are associated with growth, it is scary to imagine if this is their high, where is their low and what it means for other asset classes.


Fact #2 – Both met their 52-week high, both failed to break. Still resisted.

Continue to go sideway or time to find where bottom is?
What if, just what if the last two quarters of favourable market is just a mirage?
What if AUDUSD and Copper have just signalled their top?
What if the year to year down trend since 2013 is about to resume?

Plan accordingly.


AUDUSD and Copper monthly chart from 2010 - present

AUDUSD and Copper monthly chart from 2010 – present

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