I am looking at AUDUSD short, Brent retracement and potential Soybean and Nasdaq reversal.
AUDUSD 4-month distribution finally shows hand
I wrote about AUDUSD more than a week ago. This was what I wrote
3. This is one pair I would not touch. Looking at all those long shadows at the top, I am inclined to think of it as a ‘distribution’ that does not want to show hand yet.
I emphasied the long shadows – long shadows at the top form because bulls push price up but ultimately lose. In AUDUSD’s particular case, this means that there is a group of secret bears that have been prevailing against the bulls, prevailing despite the uptrend. There is a piece that talks about this kind of price action written by my colleague Binni Ong over here. Although her post was written in the context of high impact news, what she wrote about the psychology of price spike and how line charts can reveal effective resistance is highly relevant.
The bears prevailed but were not ready to let AUDUSD come down yet. What happened with AUDUSD this week is those secret bears have given their final approval. We can see AUDUSD falling out of the whole 4.5 week consolidation with a bearish expansion that terminates the previous months of creeping uptrend.
In my opinion, this is entirely in line with USD’s current strengthening and for AUDUSD, the start of a significant down trend. Whoever entered already got a good catch. Whoever has not entered however has to wait. This is because AUDUSD is now sitting at a potential support in the blue zone. Anyone who jumps short now has to hope that momentum will continue – a very scary thought because the range of last week’s movement is already equal to or beats entire October’s price range.
A safer entry has to wait for another consolidation or retracment, at least until one knows exactly where resistance is. There is no hurry really.
Also I want to link to this post I made in September, specifically this particular picture below – that any down move in AUDUSD is merely a continuation of a previous year to year trend and since AUDUSD was merely doing a very big retracement, this week’s movement could be just the end of that retracement.
Additionally I want to just point to this post made on 29 September again pointing to AUDUSD’s bearishness. All the signs were there.
Note: NZDUSD is in the same shape as AUDUSD.
Brent down trend but supported, retracing
This is a chart that says all about Brent. Salients points:
- November is a bearish expansion month which signals that previous month-month uptrend terminated.
- Looking for short signal.
- Red horizontal line based on previous weekly closed is now acting as support based on Friday’s price action (in inset at bottom of chart).
- Optimum resistance should be somewhere at high of July – September.
Brent is going down – Brent and WTI are inversely correlated with USD. So long as DXY goes up, crude prices are down and demand/supply and all that news flow out of OPEC is just a big distraction.
DXY goes up, WTI, Brent comes down. Sorry guys. Those oil inventory numbers are just day to day noise for WTI. Over long, the true driver of oil price is the value of the USD.
Soybean waking up?
Backstory here ‘Watching the Commodities space for the next winner‘ where I wrote about copper and soybean – which copper bursts up days later. Back then I wrote
The most important feature in this weekly chart of soya bean is the new 52-week high printed this year. This new high terminates the down trend in place from 2013 t0 2014. Price has fallen back below the former 52-week (2015) at 1058 but should price recover this level, then the chance of a bullish trend is so much more likely. In the mean time, I want to see that soya bean stays supported, to comply with the upward rising channel.
My question is whether this week’s white candle at orange zone qualifies as supported? Draw your own conclusions.
NAS100 like this can or not?
Don’t know. But just wait for price action to show got resistance or not.
Director, TerraSeeds Market Technician Pte Ltd. Trader, investor. @sohtionghum was picked ‘Top 70 Forex Twitter in 2015’. Operates multiple strategies.
“Dear reader, I do not have a financial license to give advice. I do not know you the reader. Your financial objective and risk tolerance may be different from mine. I am not responsible for any consequence of your action.