The reversals in NZDUSD and USDCAD that were anticipated and discussed earlier this week are now bearing fruit after NFP data in favour of USD strengthening. These are big patterns that could lead to big moves.
For backstory to these 2 pairs, please look at this post ‘Currency pairs update Week 31 2016‘ where I summarised their setups as
Both are suspected of potentially reversing in a strengthening of USD. USDCAD is most prominent with a 4-month consolidation at stake.
NZDUSD potential head and shoulders, return to channel
- Potential head and shoulders bearish reversal pattern.
- Return back into channel.
- 1. and 2. above pending day/week close tomorrow morning.
- After 4-days of fighting around the opening price, post-NFP the pair is now in the red which may dictate sentiment for the rest of the month.
- I have been holding the bearish view for NZDUSD since this post on 28 July.
NZDUSD daily chart 18 September 2015 – present
USDCAD 1-2-3-4 long setup, poised to break 4-month ascending triangle
- 4-month long resistance zone painted in green and ascending triangle described here. Note in this posting, we used a CADUSD chart instead of the conventional USDCAD. Therefore the triangle in CADUSD came up as descending.
- Inside the 4-month ascending triangle, another set of near-symmetrical triangle can be drawn, painted in red trend lines. This latter set was already broken. A 1-2-3-4 (test- re-test) price action can be found which coincided with Monday’s opening level (also for week and month. Again this setup could dominate sentiment for rest of August.
USDCAD daily chart 27 January 2016 – present
EURUSD bonus chart bearish 1-2-3-4, wash n rinse July high
IN typical fashion, last Friday’s sharp loss in dollar (see DXY, following through this Tuesday) leading to EURUSD spiking up is now typically a case of herding the market into a bull trap just above July high. This must be seen in month-month context where late May’s bearish expansion terminated previous month’s of higher gains and then June new low was a continuation down.
EURUSD daily chart 14 July 2015- present
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Soh Tiong Hum is Director of TerraSeeds Market Technician Pte Ltd. TerraSeeds is a trading educator in Singapore since 2005.
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