Week 29 forex wrap up with big picture look
Dax 30 at 2014-high, potential resistance
Dax 30 was tackled on 11 July and then again on 15 July in log-in required sections. ‘3 YH’ refers to 2014 high which as a former 52-week high, offers resistance. In my opinon it is not a happy chart. As a matter of fact, Brexit has exposed Dax’s weakness. Risk comes from weak European banks like BMPS and DB.
Deutsche Bank’s links to the world’s largest lenders make it a bigger potential risk to the wider financial system than any other global bank, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Thursday.
The IMF compared possible threats to financial stability stemming from globally systemically important banks, known as “G-SIBs”, in a review of Germany’s banking and insurance sector.
“Among the G-SIBs, Deutsche Bank appears to be the most important net contributor to systemic risks, followed by HSBC and Credit Suisse,” the fund said.
Just note that actual trading and timing would be difficult if not impossible because any crisis would be put off by repeat transfusions although the malady itself has not been cured.
AUDNZD pullback action to trend line
AUDNZD was also addressed in last week’s wrap where we described it’s richness in educational value with every technical feature from the book in it’s setup.
- This signal from AUDNZD is rich – in terms of educational value.
- It has everything essential including multiple-year support, wash ad rinse, bullish expansion. The only thing to anticipate now – throwback and then voila.
I am still looking for that throwback to former 4-week high. In the meantime, the week-week trend is now firmly established as up.
USDCAD ascending triangle
USDCAD was addressed in this story ‘WTI bulls, caution to you these 3 charts‘. I pointed out that big descending triangle in CADUSD chart which automatically we have an ascending triangle in the regular USDCAD chart that we are more familiar with. This triangle favours a reversal which has implications to WTI and Brent.
AUDUSD bearish expansion in week reaches support(?)
AUDUSD has a bearish expansion this week which signals the start of down trend mode in this time frame. In this story, I already cautioned that AUDUSD month – month trend should be down although I was wrong about the turning point. AUDUSD was discussed here (log-in only) on 18 July where we looked at selling..
NZDUSD bearish expansion in week reaches support(?)
NZDUSD week to week also down trend. For early movers, current level is former support and therefore a good place to consider profit taking.
EURUSD bearish expansion in week reaches support(?)
What I wrote on 18 July (log-in required)
2. Based on the level of Fib-R retracement, EURUSD is also clearly more bearish.
3. What is going to be testing for a EURUSD short is that for most of 3-weeks and most days within those weeks, it was just sideway – so it’s going to be a major test of psychology for those who can refrain from looking at it round the clock “look it’s made money, oh look it’s losing money again“.
4. Good news is while EURUSD is not going down, it is also not making a lot of headway up. This is classic consolidation/distribution in the making which should have a Big Move type of outcome. Again watch DXY and USDSGD closely for clues.