Currency pairs update Week 27 2016

I have not done this update for a while.

This is because Binni and I are working on limited resources and so our work arrangement is more like swopping hats. With Binni setting up her online portal and doing webinars every week, I have to pick up other activities.

Important for the community to note, Binni will continue with 4M/BP classes. Her webinars is a channel to share her ideas.

On my side, I will continue to provide support to students on my own level. Of course for those of you who want to have a faster pace, please consider to follow Binni on ‘The Alien Room’. I also encourage you to attend 4M/BP because these are classes where you truly have a 2-way interaction with the trainer.


Looking forward to short-term USD strengthening

Clue #1 – DXY building base on daily chart

  • Flag-like chart pattern which is like a continuation
  • Confluence of support from trend line, horizontal level

Dollar Index daily chart

Clue #2 – EURUSD wedge-like retracement

  • EURUSD has bearish expansion in June that makes this pair in a month-month down trend
  • The wedge-like pattern is a very typical retracement/pullback price action following a bearish expansion

EURUSD daily chart

Clue #3 – USDSGD looks supported in favour of USD strengthening

  • Finally without further comments from my personal no-BS indicator.
  • For those who do not know the background, I have always found the USDSGD to be a leading indication.
  • To reconcile with my post yesterday that observe future SGD strengthening – I see this USD up move as short term but long term, it is destined to be down pending DXY to break 92.

USDSGD daily chart


Some fireworks coming?

One event that could trigger the USD move is ECB Draghi’s speech tomorrow – this is his first speech following UK’s EU Referendum ‘Brexit’ and coupled with internet rumblings of Italian bank troubles, expect some fireworks. Oh also note that Brexit has turned out to be more harmful to EU than UK (see my post here).

And finally this important rebuke from IMF

IMF says Deutsche Bank’s global links make it biggest potential risk

Deutsche Bank’s links to the world’s largest lenders make it a bigger potential risk to the wider financial system than any other global bank, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Thursday.

The IMF compared possible threats to financial stability stemming from globally systemically important banks, known as “G-SIBs”, in a review of Germany’s banking and insurance sector.

“Among the G-SIBs, Deutsche Bank appears to be the most important net contributor to systemic risks, followed by HSBC and Credit Suisse,” the fund said.


Picture: IMF showing Globally Systematically Important Banks (GSIB)

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