Friday humour: Someone read my slides, won’t admit it
I feel terribly short-changed by that BOJ guy who is using my price levels for USDJPY to make policy but not giving me any recognition. Least they could do is pay me some Yen.
I have been telling participants at my forex lunch time talk since February that USDJPY 100 and 105 is the target to look at. This is the slide I used on 17 February 2016.
For my session this month on 06 April, I repeated the message. The message: look at 100 – 101 and 105.
Then I was shocked to read this yesterday.
- BOJ’s ability to influence market is waning and it’s hard for central bank to prevent yen strength by itself, says Shusuke Yamada, a currency strategist at Bank of America’s Merrill Lynch unit in Tokyo; intervention possible at 105, but more likely at 100; yen may reach 100 per dollar this year
- FX intervention is unjustifiable above 105, says Yunosuke Ikeda, head of Japan foreign-exchange research at Nomura Securities; until around 105, FX intervention is difficult because of recent G-20 meeting in Shanghai; intervention requires U.S. support
- Negative rates reduce buffer for Japanese investors’ risk-taking and USD/JPY’s recent drop could keep Mitsubishi UFJ Kokusai Asset Management from “aggressively” making new investments, according to Hideo Shimomura, chief fund investor in Tokyo; says USD/JPY may reach about 105 this month or in May