Singapore Stock Market Outlook Q1 2016
Stock/index investors’, traders’ seminar event
We are looking at technical movement of Straits Times Index, component stocks as well as global indices. Implications of Fed Rate Hike (if any) and if there should be any market boom or bust, which stocks will be interesting.
Speaker: Soh Tiong Hum
Date and time: Monday, Dec 14, 7:00 PM – 9:30 PM*
Venue: 9 Battery Road #01-02 Straits Trading Building Singapore 049910 (sponsored by IG; ground floor opposite Standard Chartered Bank)
This event is open to members of public; please invite friends, family along.
To register, please go to this page fill in the form and indicate “I want to attend market outlook on 14 Dec“. Seating capacity is fixed at 50 persons; registration is MUST (only 20 remaining).
Price: $40 (Cash or Voucher) per person
*There will be a 10 minute product presentation by Miss Teresa Tong, IG, from 7.00pm followed by 20-minutes Q&A. Main event will start from 7.30pm.
- Tiong Hum specialises in technical analysis/ chart reading.
- He will look at look at local indices/sub-indices, movement of STI components for the health of the stock market.
- In addition, he will also look at commodities, energy, forex and regional market indices that for market correlation, common themes.
- See below for examples.
The key risk to Singapore stock market in 2016 is contagion. Some of this contagion is likely to come from our ASEAN neighbours where Singapore banks may be exposed. MSCI Emerging Markets Index is an important indicator that cannot be ignored.
From MSCI website, “The MSCI Emerging Markets Index captures large and mid cap representation across 23 Emerging Markets (EM) countries*. With 837 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.” In addition, Financials take up 28.6% of sector weight in the index. Among the top 10 constituents are China banks CCB, ICBC and BOC.
As can be seen from this chart, emerging markets (EM) has fallen out of a 4-year distribution and is near the lowest point. With most stock markets near multiple year highs, there is a greater chance of this index going lower.
If the US stock market is the most bullish of all in the whole world with its degree technological and financial innovation and *gasp* near unlimited powers of QE, then we know what 2016 is going to be like for rest of the world stock markets (hint: bearish).
Presenting 30 years of Dow Jones Industrial Average data painted in boxes according to 52-week highs and lows.
Light blue for years that expand bullishly new high and low over previous year and pink for years that expand bearishly into lower low and lower high. Note: 1988 and 2003 are ‘inside’ years coloured the same as their previous year as continuation.
Once the market does a bearish expansion below previous year low like the one on August 24 ‘Black Monday‘, unless it reverses to print a new high, any movement is considered a retracement of the previous wave. An example here.