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The shocking truth about GBPUSD

Initially I was bearish about GBPUSD. Please look at the 2 charts drawn on weekly and monthly.

 

Weekly chart

Broke below key level 1.5233 on week close. However, subsequent week immediately reversed into a double bar (pipe candle). This week, price close above these 2 pipes, thus I’ve turned bullish.

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Week close bearish

 

Monthly Chart

I’ve checked into monthly chart, and found that price has not registered a close below key level 1.5233, although the month has not ended yet.

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Month close not bearish

 

3 month 1234 pattern

It seems that at this moment, from weekly chart, the long term support 1.5233 is supported with double reversal bar and a bullish weekly close.

Therefore, from chart below, I will be looking at a retest back towards pt 2 to hopefully get a discount into some longs. However, if price trades above R1 (established as a cluster of resistance) then that will be very bullish for GBPUSD to head towards next few resistance including R2 (recent high) and R3 1.60 round number.

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1234 pattern pattern for 3 months

Do let me know if you like this kind of writing style, I’m trying to come out with something which can reach your objective

Update on 3.18pm 21 Sep

Do note the new black line which I’ve drawn. This is a recent level formed, but this level is an important historical level which I’ve mapped.

If price is hovering here, stay supported and refused to go down, then price is gathering strength to break above R1. Do watching out for some LTF 1234 around this level.

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New recent level formed. Watch for this level\

Updated on 23 Sep 2015, 4.39pm

There is a strengthening of DXY (US Dollar Index) thus USD strengthen, leading to fall in GBPUSD.

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DXY

GBPUSD entered into the marked green zone for potential buy limit. I want to watch this zone for price action, fact that DXY has still quite some momentum upwards (although it has come to a resistance zone).

I’ve marked in another set of support zone (in black). This is really the last set of support. If this support gives way, then it’s sayora-na to GBPUSD. So I’m going to play conservative (although I did have a small portion of GBPUSD limit triggered in already at low, running with just a tiny profit).

See that chart which I’ve mapped as 1234. I hope to see 1234 formed with trigger. Will update via twitter or post (whichever is faster when I see that).

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GBPUSD mapping in new support and potential 1234

 

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17 thoughts on “The shocking truth about GBPUSD”

  1. Calin Chong says:

    Very clear :)

  2. Victoria Yam says:

    I like this way of writing because I get to know your chain of thoughts and can make plans for my trades in the same manner.

  3. Rachel Tan says:

    The writing style is good as far as the overall trend and levels are highlighted. But more often than not, we have problems with execution. Is it safe to place limit orders at the said levels or do we make manual entries just upon seeing price turn upwards in lower TF (e.g. 1 hr, 15 mins) at the support ? How do we manage the lot size ? Do we spread risk across various levels ? There is a possibility that the limit order never gets hit. Or it’s hit and price retrace further downwards. Worst case, if below Pt 2 trend would have turned south again.

    In my chart below, Pt 2 is F6 in the latest leg of the rally. Amazing to see how the turning points seem to gel in nicely with fibonacci levels. Also, if the blue channel I drew were to be valid, price may just wayang in there for a few weeks. What do you think ?

    https://goo.gl/5ygT4I

  4. Jason Lee Ho Fan says:

    Thanks Binni!!

  5. Wern Farrago says:

    Thanks Binni. Very useful learning indeed!

  6. Chiah Hang Dennis Eng says:

    Writing style good and easy to understand

  7. Puay Ngee William Ng says:

    Hi Binni ,
    It is simple clear & concise and also the charts tells me, where to go long or not and the different levels to look out for – definitely can get used to this style or writing :)

  8. Frans Tanudjaja says:

    I like this kind of info and analysis.

  9. Jui Koon Derrick Tan says:

    Thank you clear and precise style

  10. William Ang Yong Ching says:

    Yes clear. We know also whether you are bullish or bearish and support/resistant number is very helpful. I love the style of writing. Hope to see more of this style. Thanks Binni.

  11. Siok Neo Elaine Anne Lim says:

    i Binni,yes can understand what you wrote, you mentioned waiting for retest of point 2, has it not gone back to point 2?

  12. Binni Ong says:

    Thanks a lot everyone for feedback. pls also see other students comments here https://plus.google.com/+Terraseedsforexstrategy/posts/iP2PTr8tfcs

    @Elaine no, price hasn’t gone back to pt 2 yet

    @rachel pls see my reply to you below

    Is it safe to place limit orders at the said levels or do we make manual entries just upon seeing price turn upwards in lower TF (e.g. 1 hr, 15 mins) at the support ?
    –> BN reply: there is nothing safe. You can either place a limit with a fix/known risk. The only thing is that those levels which I’ve mapped are super strong levels. You can look for price action at that level in LTF too, as you mentioned.

    How do we manage the lot size ? Do we spread risk across various levels ? There is a possibility that the limit order never gets hit. Or it’s hit and price retrace further downwards. Worst case, if below Pt 2 trend would have turned south again.

    –> for limit, i will also do smaller size, ranging from 20-30%. Again in limit case, SL could be lower, so if you trade base on risk model, then lot size might turn out bigger than a market order due to tighter SL.

    In my chart below, Pt 2 is F6 in the latest leg of the rally. Amazing to see how the turning points seem to gel in nicely with fibonacci levels. Also, if the blue channel I drew were to be valid, price may just wayang in there for a few weeks. What do you think ?
    –> it’s torturing for wayang. But the longer it wayang, the more strength it built. This is good for price to gather strength to move up.

  13. Julie Bong says:

    Very clear and easy to understand!

  14. Siok Neo Elaine Anne Lim says:

    hi people in this case the wayang will not hurt so much right since its still positive carry right?

  15. Siok Neo Elaine Anne Lim says:

    binni! think it went to retest pt 2 le! correct ma?

  16. Cheow Chin William See says:

    Hi Binni,

    If the blue 1234 did form, isn’t it going to form a head and shoulder?

  17. Siok Neo Elaine Anne Lim says:

    oops! i also bought at 1.5325 le! put my sl at 1.5273, so small loss at the moment, should i just cut?

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