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USDJPY bears look here! This is what my Tflow® strategy says

USDJPY technical picture


  1. USDJPY is in the 4th year of an uptrend that started in 2012.
  2. The pair rose to a high that nearly reached 126 but eventually weakened. At the moment it is trading at 121.00.
  3. It became very clear that there is a resistance at 124.20 which was the high of 2007. Every price action above this level failed to stay.
  4. We also know that 121.80 i.e. 2014 high is a support. The first time USDJPY weakened and fell below this level in Week 28, price quickly rebounded and closed the week higher, leaving a tail here.
  5. Since 121.80 is a proven level, it is going to become a resistance instead now that price has fallen below.
  6. USDJPY printed a bearish expansion on the month-month action in both July and August. This is the clearest sign that the month-month uptrend and higher lows enjoyed in 2014 and early this year is over. Uptrend terminated.
USDJPY weekly chart from 2014 - present

USDJPY weekly chart from 2014 – present


Levels to lean on, levels to overcome

  • That 2-month bearish expansion means that any trend following trader should be selling this pair.
  • Any strengthening is likely to be retracement move.
  • Taking advantage of 121.80, this level is clearly a level to look for price action showing resistance.
  • The best signs – look for reaction to 121.80. Best reinforced by a re-test.
USDJPY daily chart showing various elements

USDJPY daily chart showing various elements

  •  121.80 (121.84 to be exact) as well as downwards equidistant channel serves as elements that most traders will immediately recognise. Look for confluence between these two.
  • Last support appears to be vicinity of 116 – a round number – as well as January low printed at 115.85.
  • There is one major element here that most traders likely overlook. That’s the opening price of 2015 at 119.79. Use this as sentiment-reality check.
  • Above 2015 open, USDJPY stays positive for the year. Bulls have something to cheer.
  • Below 2015 open, the pair turns negative, buyers will look bad.
  • This level is going to be a minor support but it’s key contribution is how affects the way many traders feel about this currency pair.
  • If price falls below 119.79 again, it’s correction is going to speed up.

Director, TerraSeeds Market Technician Pte Ltd. Trader, investor. @sohtionghum was picked ‘Top 70 Forex Twitter in 2015’.

“Dear reader, I do not have a financial license to give advice. I do not know you the reader. Your financial objective and risk tolerance may be different from mine. I am not responsible for any consequence of your action.

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2 thoughts on “USDJPY bears look here! This is what my Tflow® strategy says”

  1. Jonathan Chua says:

    Thank you Tiong Hum, learn so much from your explanation. Infinite gratitude.

  2. Benson Ang says:

    USing opening price of the year to guage the strength and sentiment of the currency pair. Thumbs up.

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