Market this year is about interest rate cut.
RBA cut rate twice this year, the second time was within expectation, so instead of AUD moving down, it went up. This proves one thing: Sell on rumour, buy on news.
BOC is unlikely to do another surprise rate cut as it has specially said that any change in rate is Oil dependent. We see Oil going up.
However, RBNZ surprised the market that it might consider another rate cut. Well, this is the fun part. I gave my stand why I believed that NZD is due for a fall the night before RBNZ meeting during BP class. And it is known that I initiated shorts in NZDUSD and NZDCAD. I presented again into these 2 charts and all my entry points with my current holdings. Next will be, is there any opportunity to sell NZD on rate cut speculation.
Before you continue or scroll down, I repeat, if you use what I’ve written here to make or lose money, pls let me know in tweet. I repeatedly declared my intention of why I needed the pips gain/loss.
Big Picture Analysis
Everything explained in chart. Most important is the WR part of those previous highs and lows which I marked out.
I waited for a day close below those historical levels. Also this is a 3 month consolidation pattern.
Multiple 1234 and implication
There are at least 2 counts of 1234. On the blue smallish 1234, F6 is triggered on day close, and today price high shows resistance to historical level. On red 1234, F6 not broken, this means that IF price does move down, then F6 of red 1234 can potentially act as support. However, if this level is broken, then around the ED low of 8500 could potential provide another support.
I didn’t add in boxes in H4. Please do your work here.