If RBNZ said potential for rate cut, which NZD pair to consider?

Market this year is about interest rate cut.

RBA cut rate twice this year, the second time was within expectation, so instead of AUD moving down, it went up. This proves one thing: Sell on rumour, buy on news.

BOC is unlikely to do another surprise rate cut as it has specially said that any change in rate is Oil dependent. We see Oil going up.

However, RBNZ surprised the market that it might consider another rate cut. Well, this is the fun part. I gave my stand why I believed that NZD is due for a fall the night before RBNZ meeting during BP class. And it is known that I initiated shorts in NZDUSD and NZDCAD. I presented again into these 2 charts and all my entry points with my current holdings. Next will be, is there any opportunity to sell NZD on rate cut speculation.

Before you continue or scroll down, I repeat, if you use what I’ve written here to make or lose money, pls let me know in tweet. I repeatedly declared my intention of why I needed the pips gain/loss. 

Big Picture Analysis

Everything explained in chart. Most important is the WR part of those previous highs and lows which I marked out.


At resistance, WR previous high as a support

Price close

I waited for a day close below those historical levels. Also this is a 3 month consolidation pattern.


Multiple 1234 count


Multiple 1234 and implication

There are at least 2 counts of 1234. On the blue smallish 1234, F6 is triggered on day close, and today price high shows resistance to historical level. On red 1234, F6 not broken, this means that IF price does move down, then F6 of red 1234 can potentially act as support. However, if this level is broken, then around the ED low of 8500 could potential provide another support.

I didn’t add in boxes in H4. Please do your work here.


1234 and F6

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2 thoughts on “If RBNZ said potential for rate cut, which NZD pair to consider?”

  1. Benson Ang says:

    Hi Binni,

    Next RBNZ rate review on 11th June 2015 but Wheeler speech is this month 13th, tgt with Financial stability report announcement. Hope wheeler will this time round drop some hints on decreasing rate dur to lousy job data, and not like the previous time =X cross fingers.

    Price fell so beautifully out of the ED channel after bad job data yesterday, followed by bouncing in between the key prices represented by your 2 red dotted lines, they are also the 2YH prices which is the key resistance zone in 2014 last year.

    A week close below this zone would be very very nice. cos the last time theres a week close below this zone is about 2 months ago in early march. Thereafter the following week, price headed south all the way to 87++. POWER!

    Waiting for price set up in H4 for a retracement to test the 2YH price zone and wait for 1234 pattern.

  2. Siok Neo Elaine Anne Lim says:

    Hi Binni, missed the short on nzdcad that you were spoke about when you asked the class to choose a nzd pair. You were spot on! I did not have the energy to wait up for the candle close that evening and only on the laptop later the following day to see my could have been $$$bag! Am i correct to say right now there is a resistance at 0.9060 and therefore an opportunity to enter at this level since the day and week oh close below this level?
    sorry need to ask you here, not familiar with twitter yet.

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