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AUDUSD – What happened when RBA keep rate unchanged?

Before RBA meeting 11.30am this morning, I asked myself this question, will RBA ease again consecutively?

I asked myself this question during the weekend before, and kept asking this question when I was conducting Tflow® Intake 46 class.

My take during the class, was NO. This was confirmed by an industry veteran. But I needed more evidence apart from my logical deduction and guess.

 

If you look at this tweet, it means that for RBA to ease today, consecutively after previous easing, the probability is 28%. Just barely more than one-quarter. Hmm….

Let’s look at AUDUSD again, the usual style of analysis, big picture first.

Price resisted by ED channel

 

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ED Channel

H4 boxes show Big move, and now had a WRMB. In this WRMB, there was a daily candle close below pt 2. RBA piece of news pushed price higher to retest pt 2, offering traders another chance to sell if they think that this 1234 is still valid

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1234 and WRMB

Price was resisted by ED channel shown below, thus ED low could potentially be a support

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ED Channel and low of ED is a support level

If RBA don’t cut rate, then what can drive AUDUSD down?

Take a look at DXY, we have dollar index broke out of a pattern, and now approaching previous high. Under no driver situation, I think it might be dollar that will move AUDUSD. Again trend is down.

ED channel 7700 will be potentially a support, previous low around 7650 another support, but what RBA chief said, 7500 is a reasonable level for AUDUSD (fundamental view) could be another major support.

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What does Dollar index says?

 

Updated on 9 March 6.54pm by Binni Ong

AUDUSD dropped after retesting pt 2. I picked up more AUDUSD shorts on this statement:

RBA piece of news pushed price higher to retest pt 2, offering traders another chance to sell if they think that this 1234 is still valid

Before NFP (Non Farm Payroll), price retested point 2 again, trading around 0.7840. It can be scary, but price NEVER says that the sell pattern 1234 is invalid. Thus, it’s about sticking to rules, isn’t it?

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Price retested pt 2 again before NFP

After which, price moved down aggressively to touch low of ED channel which I mentioned in my post above:

ED channel 7700 will be potentially a support, previous low around 7650 another support, but what RBA chief said, 7500 is a reasonable level for AUDUSD (fundamental view) could be another major support.

Now price reached low of channel 0.7700 and bingo! TP done!

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Low of ED Channel as support

It’s 0.7845 -0.7700 = 145 pips in the pocket. 

LOL. Again!

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One thought on “AUDUSD – What happened when RBA keep rate unchanged?”

  1. Siok Neo Elaine Anne Lim says:

    Shifu! Looking at the aud bear must i still look for 1234? Can i just put order to sell at .7730 since .7740 strong resistance

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