EURUSD – When will you love and hate retracement?
First, I give myself a pat on the shoulder when EURUSD reached 1.2500, the level that I said in this post “Why I believe EURUSD will go to 1.25 and even lower” . It is important to hold to certain idea and trade that idea according to plan. I am proud to say I did it!
Second, I like to toy an idea in this post, that EURUSD will head towards 1.22 region. I’m expecting 1.2210-1.2250. The only issue is “WHEN” which of course I can’t answer. But I believe it won’t take years but just months.
Today EURUSD presents a chance for a movement towards 1.25 again (I hope so!) and thus I tweeted last week
— TerraSeeds FX Tflow® (@terraseeds) October 22, 2014
But this trade does not generate ‘WOW’, instead gotten me quite some questions over email. I guess it’s because prices move slowly. A slow market is something which I can’t control. Either it’s too slow that you yawn or too fast that one catches nothing. Which do you like?
Read EURUSD big picture analysis and levels in this post “Why I believe EURUSD will go to 1.25 and even lower” and this post
The love-hate relationship with retracement
Love – when you are not in a position
Hate – when you are in a position
Simple as that.
When I tweeted about EURUSD, there was a H4 close, but there was no firm D1 close. Thus, market was confused and needed to retrace once more.
Those who hate retracement
It’s really up to you on how you judge. Either you see a half full or half filled cup of water. But this is what is happening now in EURUSD
#tflow wk44/1 $eurusd below 12650 has S 12580 12510
Tell me, do you love or hate retracement?
Update by Binni Ong on 29 Oct 12.06am
A nosedive below F6 in H4; I brought up in this post that there was no firm close of D1 below F6. Price is now retracing, suggesting a potential HS. Again I don’t want to imagine all sorts of scenario to say that this position is not in a danger. But I just want to bring up, yes in H4 price has already closed above F3, but this is not yet in D1.
To convince a bullish setting, then this 1234 has to confirm. When this bullish 1234 confirms, then I will be convinced that EURUSD is heading up towards higher price level. H4 nosedive again above ED channel but still below F6.
In d1, price yet did not close above ED.
A bad trade is a bad trade and should be cut immediately. I have not issue in cutting loss and feel no pain in doing so. However, in this situation where trigger to sell in the first place was not too obvious, I would really like to see a d1 close before confirming this trade has turned sour. Loss will be bigger here, thus it is important to make sure the trade size is manageable.
Update by Binni Ong 1.57am on 30 Oct
I still did not see a bullish 1234; the level to confirm bullish 1234 on F6 will be 1.2782 and above.
So as resistance stays true, I want to stay in this trade. However in view of potential volatility in FOMC, I have reduced my exposure by 30%. But I will still insist on 1.2450 as long as resistance stays true.
Update by Binni Ong 4.16pm on 3 Nov
But I will still insist on 1.2450 as long as resistance stays true.
Trading is about sticking to plan as long as the other plan that can destroy your bias don’t come true. I was short EURUSD. Eventually price reached what I said, 1.2450 this morning. This is a good trade to think about psychology. What we had was a nasty retracement (even my account suffered during the retracement. But if you could stick to what we teach, 1234, trigger…then there are times that a trade will be fast and furious.
Let’s stick to plan, alright?