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NZDUSD – RBNZD intervention and how do we profit from it?

I have been talking about selling NZDUSD about 1 month ago. It’s not new to Tflow® students.  In fact, for recent intake Tflow® student intake 44, with their acquired skill and knowledge, they might have made quite some pips.


It was released by RBNZ that they have been selling New Zealand Dollar. Not surprise since the PM was an ex-forex trader.


Now we are interested in what Tflow® says about NZDUSD.

Big Picture Analysis

Broke below ED channel, current 0.77 previous low a support.


Broke ED channel, below key support, break out of big pattern

No bullishness seen in Day/Week close

nzdusd 21 2014-09-30_16-03-55

Day candle don’t show any bullishness

Last week, H4 box shows bearish expansion

nzdusd 3 2014-09-30_16-08-52

Mapping 1234 near to key historical resistance

We see a 1234 mapping with F6 and ED channel drawn. However, this is a relatively small 1234. But considering the strength in its current momentum and that it is near to a strong resistance, I’m still thinking it should be bearish. Again caution raised here.

WR trigger will be faster than a F6 trigger. There is no better trigger. Each trigger has its merit. Most important is risk management. Can you take the risk?

nzdusd 4 2014-09-30_16-10-37

#tflow trade wk 40/2 $nzdusd below F6 or 7770 (WR buffered) has S 7680 (previous low). 

Other NZD crosses are also mapping out similar 1234 pattern e.g. nzdjpy nzdcad.

And is 0.68 possible….well Let me be more conservative *big smile*

How about 0.74? Low of ED channel. Let me know when this number comes true!


0.74 in nzdusd…

Updated by Binni Ong 2 oct 11.52am

NZDUSD is retracing into a bigger pattern. F6 was not triggered on H4 close, however, WR buffer was.  If there is a close above 7860, yesterday high, then we might see more retracement of NZDUSD towards higher price.

Updated by Binni Ong 10 Oct 7pm

We hate retracement when we have a position. We like retracement when we have no position. I have a love/hate relationship with “retracement”.

In the previous update, NZDUSD went above 7860 and went higher towards 7960. All these movements is part of the retracement as resistance remains intact.


Resistance still stays

Price mapped a complex retracement instead of a simple one; this is a good sign because the retracement period is now longer, meaning any subsequent movement will be stronger


Multiple 1234


Currently price supported by F6


F6 and 1234


Pattern has a gentle 13TL, I suspect price might retrace up again towards resistance. However, I would think it is bearish if price can break 13TL


13TL and 1234

Due to gentle slope in 13TL, I prefer to let price close below 13TL.

#tflow trade wk 41/2 $nzdusd below 7815 F6 has S at 13TL. ONLY when 13TL has been broken, then S at 0.74 exposed. If price don’t close below F6, there is a chance that price will retrace again towards resistance as mapped above

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One thought on “NZDUSD – RBNZD intervention and how do we profit from it?”

  1. Jia Hui Toh says:

    Good post. Thanks Binni!

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