How did Binni Ong predict gold price in this HKEJ interview?
See how this gold prediction for HKEJ turned out
Chief Trainer Binni Ong was interviewed by Hong Kong Economic Journal in November 2011 during which she made predictions for gold price. Today we look at those predictions turn out and share them with you.
Original Chinese text of her interview can be found here ‘培訓主管王玢霓香港受访，看黄金的走势‘. Below is a translation of the article from Chinese to English by Google Translate.
Translated text of interview
November 4, 2011, HKEJ – Investment experts points out deviation between the traded price of gold & its fundamental value
In Europe, gold prices is poised towards ever higher prices despite economic instability, short-term investment experts expects this to be insustainable, the price of gold has been described as a serious deviation from the fundamentals, the market is too heavy speculative mentality, retail investors should be cautious market.
Wang Bin Ni Taiyuan Technical Analysis Training Supervisor Singapore estimates that gold target price 2-3 months to see $ 1,800, but in the long term, gold will be a wave of fall, $ 1,500 will be a support level, if fell below $ 1,500, long-term Target price may be low, see $ 1,350.
She pointed out that a single month of August and September, before the monthly volatility of the gold price volatility of 2-3 times, while October gold price volatility narrowed, but the short term is still very likely to occur in August and September as intense price when fluctuations; therefore recommends the existing long-term investors should not enter the market to operate, but if the daily or weekly time frame can be considered.
She said that earlier in the high range of investors holding so far, they may pay attention to short-term stop-loss selling gold or liquidated, because there are still a number of institutional investors pushed the price of gold to arbitrage during 1772-1790 U.S. dollars range; but In fact, there are many uncertain given the current external market factors, the fundamentals do not have enough gold to support its such a high price at; until the price of gold fell to below $ 1,500 level, then worth considering re-buying.
Wang Bin Ni believes that the current situation, the price of silver is better than gold trend temporarily, as less experienced investors to invest gold and silver, with the first few months, the price of silver excessive volatility due to speculation, she suggested that the lack of experience ETF investors may consider the sale of silver, and reduce risk.
Binni’s key predictions for gold price
- “estimates that gold target price 2-3 months to see $ 1,800”
- “but in the long term, gold will be a wave of fall, $ 1,500 will be a support level”
- “if fell below $ 1,500, long-term Target price may be low, see $ 1,350”
- Highest traded gold price after the interview was $1795.80, 0.2% away from predicted level at $1800.
- Gold traded at $1320 in April 2013, 17 months after the interview or 2.2% from predicted level at $1350.
The forecasting technique that she used? Price action-based analysis using Tflow®.