Post Trade Analysis on GBPAUD
I was bearish on GBPAUD after the H4 box expansion, thus tweeted this
— TerraSeeds FX Tflow® (@terraseeds) August 5, 2014
The trade was in my favour initially, however, after AUD job data, it went against me.
I have 3 batches of this trade and decided that I should just cut losses for all. 1 batch exited in break even; the other 2 had and average of 60 pips loss on protected stop loss.
Why did I decided to square all positions?
This position was initiated because there was a bearish expansion on 2 H4 boxes. Support was clear at bottom of channel.
I have noted a support near to low of channel (marked green). However, I didn’t take into account F6 as a support, which was 30 pips away from the historical support.
In the first attempt to short, I was stopped out at a loss. In my second attempt, this position was winning, however, due to not being able to spot the F6 support, I had exited some at break even some at loss.
What was the deciding factor for me to cut all positions.
The presence of bullish 1234 structure. There could be a chance that the red 1234 could be true and thus the blue 1234 is the right bottom (currently suspect a double bottom)