FOMC rinse-repeat; USDSGD false breakout and bull trap

Herding traders into a trap

USDSGD price action prior to and after last night’s FOMC followed the same plot as we saw with ECB Bid Rate and Press Conference 2 weeks ago.

Price setup prior to ECB event placed traders in a fix to choose a counter-trend breakout play versus a fade-trade that is with-the-trend continuation. As we can see from this chart, point 1  marks the spot where bulls are shown a breakout play but which turns out in the aftermath to be a sell signal. Perfect bull trap.

USDSGD daily chart

USDSGD chart from 06 June 2014 – day following ECB Bid Rate and Press Conference


Same drama happened with USDSGD this week

USDSGD Bull Trap

USDSGD bull trap closes after FOMC last night

Fact #1 – Red shows the month to month trend which is down. This is a very significant time frame.

Fact #2 – Purple shows that week to week trend is also aligned with lower low following ECB event. The right trade must follow the down trend.

Fact #3 – Price makes a breakout on Tuesday to reverse sharply following FOMC and revealing a false break and bull trap.


Pre- and post-FOMC looks just like ECB setup; same plot

We analysed 2 days ago here that two major time frames for USDSGD are aligned so that the right trade must be a continuation of the down trend. Then I made a prediction that:

In the name of FOMC meeting tomorrow, once again the market serves a high impact news that will force traders to choose between trading a breakout versus fading one.

USDSGD daily chart

This was the chart I used then

Following last night’s FOMC and observing today’s price action, the plot turned out to be the same.

From the 4-hourly time frame, this is how it looks.

FOMC before and after for USDSGD

This is how it looks today on 4-hourly; orange marks the bull trap

What this means to forex traders?

I repeat:

1. Support and resistance are pillars in the market.
2. Follow the flow; there are many flows because that’s the nature of multiple time frames but the flow in the higher time frame is strongest.
3. Do not play breakout; breakouts succeed once in a while but fading breakouts i.e. trading against a breakout is the higher probability trade setup (this is so important to understand I strongly recommend you see this ‘How market makes money from both buyers and sellers’ bonus chart

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Soh Tiong Hum is Director of TerraSeeds Market Technician Pte Ltd. TerraSeeds is a trading educator in Singapore since 2005.   Soh's Twitter account @sohtionghum was ranked #23 out of The Top 70 Twitter Accounts To Follow In 2015 by MahiFX.   Disclaimer notice: "I do not have a financial advisor's license. I am not qualified by any regulator to give financial advice. I do not know you the reader. Your investment means and motive may be different from me. My posts here are based on observations and meant for education. I am not responsible for for any consequence from your actions."
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