Trading New Zealand Dollar Rate before Chinese New Year – NZDUSD

On 29 Jan 2014, we have KIWI interest rate. 29 Jan is just few days before Chinese New Year!

I’m going to do a quick post on NZDUSD to see what the market is seeing and expecting for this interest rate announcement.

Monthly Chart Shows resistance, however I want to point out that there is a possibility that price might breakout of resistance to complete a possible cup and handle


Monthly resistance and support levels

On weekly chart, price shows resistance but have yet closed below a support mapped by green line (monthly level)


Weekly price levels

On daily chart, there is a 1234 pattern with point 4 showing HS


D1 shows ED channel and 1234 pattern, with point 4 showing HS


Green line above presents immediate support. So below 8200 there’s support at 8140-50.

However the HS chart pattern presents a nearer confirmation to price bearishness so below 8240 confirms HS pattern.

Strong support resides at 8010-20.


Update on 28 Jan 6.56pm

The big event for NZDUSD will be NZD rate on 30 Jan. It is ever more important because just 1 hour prior to RBNZ rate statement, we have the FOMC statement at 3am Singapore time.

We still do not see a decisive close below 8200 (decisive will be a H4 close). This is required before RBNZ rate to gauge the strength of bear.

Immediate R at 8300. Above this level will render the short scenario to fail.

Additional to previously mentioned level, recent low of NZDUSD is 8195. Therefore, instead of 8200, it is necessary for price to close below 8195 H4

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