AUDSGD – WRMB and Bearish Expansion – What’s up
One of the easiest trade setup (in my opinion) to catch a toppish or bottoming trade is WRMB.
As mentioned in class, boxes has the advantage of telling time together with prices – a trader is able to recognise strength of movement by looking at how many boxes (or periods) price violated.
Let’s look at AUDSGD, a trade that I covered during yesterday 4M.
Big Picture Planning
Daily chart shows potential Head Shoulder
Daily chart shows potential Head and Shoulder pattern, however, note that trendlines marked resistance trendline can act as possible resistance too
Chart above shows H4 bearish expansion. This bearish expansion is a WRMB condition. Blue horizontal line shows highest price level of the cluster of boxes (acting as resistance). Red horizontal shows the lowest high of the cluster of boxes.
Yesterday when I was conducting 4M class – price shows a bullish expansion followed by a h4 close below pt 2. See chart below.
In Tflow®, there are 2 triggers that can meet the criteria and yesterday WR met the criteria. However, WR is the faster, yet bears higher risk type of trigger. Yesterday was a valid WR trigger but the setup failed. I cannot say that there was no trigger, but one thing that is consistently true – for a WR trigger to be true, it is important for pt4 to reach a strong resistance for a sell (a support in the case of buy). Yesterday suspected high for pt 4 is the red horizontal line. This is not a strong resistance base on the number of boxes high (as only 1 box high).
I still see the cluster of boxes high acting as resistance. The issue now is how high price is going to retrace. There is a high chance that price might retrace to blue horizontal line to create a symmetrical head shoulder pattern
Next question: which is a better trigger?
– WR pt 2 is still considered a valid trigger after price touches a stronger resistance. However, WR pt 2 is a slightly risker trigger, one can position size and allocate trade size according to trigger, e.g. at WR pt2, only trigger 20-30% of total position size
– I would also consider 13TL as a slower but more confirmed trigger. Thus more positions could be allocated here
– Lastly, do note on F6 from pt 1 to 4 as a potential trigger. Usually when F6 trigger comes in, it is near to 13TL trigger.
To sum up, there is no best trigger. But as a principle, I prefer more confirmation and so would emphasize more on F6 and 13TL trigger.
On it’s support, 11650-60 offers strong support as drawn.