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USDJPY – how a step by step analysis will help you understand the chart

Students wrote: I’m confused when I look at chart and I don’t know how to proceed with analysis.

Few steps you can follow:

1. Use Boxes in H4 or D1 and see what is happening recently

2. Once you have an idea whether it is more bullish or more bearish, go to higher timeframe to find price levels to support your views

3. If you are still confused, then this trade is probably not a good one

 

Applying step 1

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H4 boxes show clearer picture

 

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USDJPY without boxes

 

H4 Analysis

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H4 trend analysis using HH and HL

Using trend analysis, following WR of the lows, if USDJPY can form a higher low, then this is first sign that the downwards movement might end. Again we need to see that price close above recent high at 9860. A close above Equidistance channel will mark the end of this downwards movement.

There are 2 ways to trade:

1. Recent H1 boxes has established an up flow, wait for 1234 in the blue clusters of support

2. Wait for completion of the ED channel and then trade on a retracement 1234 back to its support

 

Update 23 Aug 5.56pm

Yesterday 4M class got a kick from me regarding USDJPY. I made a very clear comment on how to trade USDJPY in my posting above.

There are 2 ways to trade:

1. Recent H1 boxes has established an up flow, wait for 1234 in the blue clusters of support

Was I not clear enough? Or did I post that analysis too early? We don’t have good trades every time, not every week/month is a good month for us. So why did we miss a trade? Why did we forget a trade?

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That’s a 100 pips movement from what I said

Here’s the latest movement in USDJPY

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2 ways to draw ED; it is difficult to determine whether the ED has been broken

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A more unbiased way is to map the highs/lows to understand if there is a change in trend; this is my preference

As long as price stays above 9865 in H4, the change in trend is confirmed. However if price closes below this level, then we will have a 1234 bearish with WR. Immediate resistance will come in around 9950-80 which is also the pink lines I’ve drawn on chart above.

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2 thoughts on “USDJPY – how a step by step analysis will help you understand the chart”

  1. Tavion Chee Yue Tan says:

    Hi Binni.
    Im not too sure on the second sentence (Wait for completion of the ED channel and then trade on a retracement 1234 back to its support).

    Currently price has touched the ED chn but has not closed above it yet. Do we wait for the completion of the 1234 above the ED Chn. And trade it back down to 97.566.

    Secondly if price manage to close above the ED chn can we look for a long trade to its next support level of 99.925

    1. Binni Ong says:

      will answer your questions by doing an update on usdjpy posting

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