Tflow® Trade Process – Case Study EURNZD

In our life, there will always be routine. Example, wake up, look at handphone, brush teeth, read newspaper while eating breakfast, go to work (before that kiss your husband or wife or girlfriend/boyfriend or children/dogs/cats)
This is same to trading, there is always a top of the mind trade process.
Let me share with you trade process that I always use

Tflow® Trade Process

  1. How to find trades
  2. Preparing high probability setups
  3. Pulling the trigger
  4. Managing the trade
  5. Locking and exiting the trade

Rather than to talk about theory, I would like to illustrate using EURNZD trade, a trade that I am about to take.

1. How to find trades

There are many ways, but I found EURNZD trade when I saw GBPNZD has a WRMB + BM that already happened. So I went to look at EURNZD and find that nBox pointing to potential BM.

Of course, there are also other conditions/situations that we can find explosive trades.

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Tflow BM

 

2. Preparing high probability setups

Most important, is to apply helicopter view when analysing, always start with high timeframe analysis.

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Preparing for trades – using HTF analysis

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Preparing for trades – using HTF analysis – some support

3. Pulling the trigger

Key to our success is always trigger. No trigger no trade. Anyhow trigger market will punish you.

Let me share with you what I see in lower timeframe. Note that I am not totally bearish, because can’t deny that the upwards momentum is still strong. And most importantly, I like to remind (that’s my job too) that EURNZD is now parked at at strong support. I have to assume that it is still supported now.

So 17270-80 zone (recent low and 2013 Aug high) is really a make/break level.

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EURNZD LTF, currently price is at support. So it’s a make or break level

Because of this, I want to look for a retest towards ED low, to probably look for a retracement in 1234 pattern or to take a small risk sell limit into that level around 1.75ish.

Otherwise it’s always a firm close below green support line 1.7270.

Set these 2 levels in your mind, when you see them, you know what to do.

Till then, I will write about the remaining process.

Pulling the trigger part 2 (updated on 2 oct 9.34am)

I wrote about pulling the trigger earlier, let me extract what I wrote:

Because of this, I want to look for a retest towards ED low, to probably look for a retracement in 1234 pattern or to take a small risk sell limit into that level around 1.75ish.

Price retraced to ED low, high of price traded at around ED low was 1.7510. My sell limit was filled at 1.7480. Remember I said I wasn’t full convinced of a bear. So since I’m not that convinced, and that it’s a limit order, my allocated risk is small for this batch.

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EURNZD retraced back to ED low

Pulling the trigger (Part 3) (Update 5 Oct 2.46pm)

So that FOMC was spiky. Yes, but for EURNZD trade, even I was stopped out on 50 pips SL, this trade don’t cost me much losses. Remember, we cannot have a 100% win, most important is to be able to evaluate situation and make losses small.  Let me extract what I wrote in update 2.

Remember I said I wasn’t full convinced of a bear. So since I’m not that convinced, and that it’s a limit order, my allocated risk is small for this batch.

Now we have nice bearish weekly candle close. A nice close below ED low.

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Close below ED low

If you wonder why some of your trades are successful, then one of the constant factors is a firm close. By it, I meant a day or week close. EURNZD had a day/week close below the 2 magneta lines which have been holding price. Therefore, if ever there’s a chance to retrace back to these levels, it will be a very good sell limit place for me.

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EURUSD key levels

1234 completed

Otherwise, we have 1234 completed, F6 triggered. As an additional step, it would be good for a H4 close below today open for a market trigger.

Still noting that green level is a strong support, but since 1234 is confirmed, I am more and more convinced that EURNZD could be temporarily heading to bear. Thus in lot size employment, I will be more aggressive.

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eurnzd 1234

 

Step 4: Managing Trades (updated 7 Oct 5.28pm)

There are 2 entries. One was what i pointed out previously. Another one was last night when price formed a H1 1234 at the previous high I pointed out. Both trades running at about 220 to 300 pips profit.

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1234 entry

I don’t want to see a 200-300 pips profit vanished. So my mental SL set at 1.7150 (yesterday low). When price near to round number, I’m so tempted to lock partial profit at 1.7000. It’s about more or less money. Why aren’t we satisfied. In just less than 2 days, it’s a 200-300 pips profit? Urgh….such feelings do kill me in the past. But now, I know that once I’m equipped with Tflow skill, and if I could keep my cool, if I still have enough resources, I KNOW THAT I CAN MAKE MONEY!

So I’m going to see how price react to 1.7000 when US opens but will be prepared to lock when price around 1.67-1.68. Hey, how about somewhere in between 1.6750? *Big smile*

Meanwhile, I’ve shifted trade to Break even.

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Key levels

Part 5 Locking and exiting the trade

1.70 has already been said as a key level. Price went below it, but could not day close below it.

I have already locked 40% into 1.70, with remaining tighten SL to 1.71.

Locked and protected average ranging 250 to 325 pips on this trade!

Obviously again, my students did better than me. I’m so happy.

 

 

 

 

 

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