Open Price as market sentiment gauge: Gold price bullish Silver not

Open Price as a gauge of market sentiment

Previously I wrote of opening price as a technical support resistance. It is also great as a gauge of market sentiment. Concepts of market sentiment based on Open Price come from candlesticks.

There are two reasons that makes Open Price very significant:

  1. It cannot be re-printed like some indicators do so it works very well with rule-based trading strategies.
  2. Open Price can be defined as the starting price of the year, month, week or day or any lower. It becomes a very powerful anchor for traders who need to deal with multiple time frame analysis and can suit anyone’s trading plan.


Gold price now bullish

We can see from this daily chart of XAUUSD that mostly falling Gold price can be interpreted in two ways:

  1. Down trend is dominated by lower week-to-week highs. (Lower lows are taken for granted in a down trend but highs reveal more about the ability of bulls to push price up).
  2. Month-to-month price is mostly bearish since they close below the Open.


A completely bullish reversal type of technical picture that can convince investors and traders to enter the long side must therefore look like this:

  1. To reverse the down trend of lower week-to-week highs price must make a Higher-Week-High followed by a Higher-Week-Low.
  2. Show us bullishness by trading above the Open.
XAUUSD price action

In this chart of Gold, blue boxes show weekly prices while green lines show opening price of each month

Although we do not have the first condition, the second has presented itself. Price dipped below this month’s opening level at $1233.93 but formed a V-shape and is now bullish. As long as price can build a base above $1233.93, there is a chance for it to go higher. It is not a buy signal, there is no bullish reversal pattern but bullish investors and traders have hope.


Silver is weaker, not bullish because conditions not met

The picture of Silver during the same period of time is very clearly down trending. Apart from Week 7 in the chart below, Silver had 23 weeks of falling highs since price started expanding downwards late January. Until this trend is reversed no one can truly be convinced that price of Silver has reached bottom. We also know one other additional fact: that market sentiment for Silver is weaker than Gold because it was not able to overcome its own Open Price of $19.536 established at the beginning of July.

XAGUSD price action

Silver has a near unbroken trend of falling highs for 23 weeks


Summarising everything

  1. Open Price is a good indication of market sentiment
  2. There are no signals to buy gold and silver
  3. But Gold is more bullish now than the beginning of the month
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Soh Tiong Hum is Director of TerraSeeds Market Technician Pte Ltd. TerraSeeds is a trading educator in Singapore since 2005. Soh Tiong Hum is a member and regular speaker at Technical Analysts Society Singapore events and has a bi-monthly lunch time event at IG Singapore on forex and stock markets. He is an avid blogger on technical analysis topics; his Twitter account @sohtionghum was ranked #23 out of The Top 70 Twitter Accounts To Follow In 2015 by MahiFX. Come find Tiong Hum on Google+
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