Technical picture of the USDSGD may be changing: After a decade-long bull run that sees the Singapore Dollar gain 54% against the US Dollar between 2001 and 2011, it moved into a sideway consolidation starting last year. Furthermore, bulls may see chance to for the pair to do a bullish reversal this year.
Singapore Dollar appreciates 54% between 2001 – 2011 against the US Dollar
In my posting ‘Besides Gold, Singapore Dollar has a decade-long bull run‘, I observed that the Singapore Dollar gained tremendously against US Dollar in the past decade. Apart from Singaporeans getting more purchasing power overseas, it is unclear if the appreciation has helped to stop imported inflation into resource dependent Singapore. Certainly Singapore tourism and manufacturing has become less competitive against neighbouring countries whose currencies have not appreciated as much. In a USDSGD chart, this appreciation shows up as a fall in the US Dollar.
USDSGD technical picture is now changing
The USDSGD did not fall further in 2012. In fact, light blue boxes that paints year highs and lows in the chart below show how the US Dollar – Singapore Dollar exchange rate is now moving both sideways and tightening at the same time. This is indication of a sideway consolidation.
What is more, the pair just tested and rebounded from a support resistance level at around 1.24 that has been an important feature since 2011. Price action in the last three weeks (Week 23 to Week 25) shows this testing clearly. By putting this support resistance behind, there is an opportunity for USDSGD bulls to buy the pair higher. Any price gains beyond 2012 highs will print a bullish reversal that may attract more buying action.
- USDSGD pair did not fall further in 2012
- Price movement between 2011 till date is sideway – tightening
- Price beats key 1.24 level, puts it behind, becomes support
- If price goes above 2012-high will print bullish reversal
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Soh Tiong Hum is Director of TerraSeeds Market Technician Pte Ltd. TerraSeeds is a trading educator in Singapore since 2005.
Soh Tiong Hum is a member and regular speaker at Technical Analysts Society Singapore events and has a bi-monthly lunch time event at IG Singapore on forex and stock markets. He is an avid blogger on technical analysis topics; his Twitter account @sohtionghum
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