Form a multiple time frame picture of market sentiment: EURUSD example

It is easier to make consistent trading profits by trading with the trend than going against it. Besides looking out for technical support-resistance levels and trendlines, getting market sentiment right is equally important. After all, it is easier to make more money when we join winners than stand with the losers. Better still if the same group of winners are in control of all multiple time frames.

 

Gauging market sentiment with CLOSE, OPEN price

Traders can determine market sentiment by comparing price right now (CLOSE) against price at the opening (OPEN) of the trading session. For example, if Gold is trading higher than its opening price at the beginning of the month, it is bullish. Why? Buyers who paid the opening price are obviously in the money right now and very happy of course? Imagine a candlestick. This could be applied to other time frames.

You can remember this by hard:

  1. BULLISH DAY = PRICE CLOSE NOW > PRICE OPEN THIS MORNING
  2. BULLISH WEEK = PRICE CLOSE NOW > PRICE OPEN THIS MONDAY MORNING (WEEK OPEN)
  3. BULLISH MONTH = PRICE CLOSE NOW > PRICE OPEN FIRST TRADING DAY OF MONTH (MONTH OPEN)
  4. BULLISH YEAR = PRICE CLOS ENOW > PRICE OPEN FIRST TRADING DAY OF YEAR (YEAR OPEN)

For bearish market sentiment, reverse according to price CLOSE < OPEN

 

How to do it easily

Period separator on MT4 for multiple time frames

MT4 has a very easy to use function called ‘period separator’. By pressing CTRL-Y, a set of vertical lines will appear which will separate the chart into segments or intervals.

  1. On 4-hourly chart, the lines separate price into segments of week by week
  2. On the daily chart, the lines separate months
  3. On the monthly chart, the lines separate years

 

Marking OPEN price

You can park a line on the OPEN price of any period you wish by using the ‘horizontal line’, ‘trendline’ or ‘rectangle’ function.

EURUSD yearly open price

PRICE < 2013 OPEN – bearish

After you do so, you can make a statement about EURUSD immediately. Based on the chart above ‘market sentiment bearish: EURUSD is now trading (CLOSE) below 2013 OPEN’.

 

Forming a multiple time frame picture

In the chart above, market sentiment tells us that the market is really bearish since it could not beat the opening price of the year since more than four months of trading. Bulls are losing money. Bears are clearly the winners.

 

EURUSD monthly open price

PRICE < MAy 2013 OPEN – bearish

Going down to the next time frame, price tells us as of today that bears are winning this month.

 

EURUSD weekly open price

PRICE < Week 19 OPEN – bearish

Bears are also winning this week.

 

Simple guide to traders

Of course the final objective of this exercise to form a multiple time frame picture of market sentiment is to trade it.

  1. A swing trader or investor can wait for all stars aligned
  2. When all stars are aligned, there is one dominant sentiment; consider trading with it as ‘moving along with all flows‘, or ‘entering a building with all doors open‘.
  3. Scalpers can trade short term price momentum in line with the weekly sentiment in 4-hourly chart.

 

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Soh Tiong Hum wears multiple hats: father of 2, business owner, webmaster, cook, trader and investor, writer and speaker, seo amateur and webmaster. Come find Tiong Hum on Google+

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